Why Does Joe Trippi Say Democrats’ Divisions Won’t Stop Them from Sweeping the Midterms?

[00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Blue City Blues, a podcast featuring smart guests talking about the problems facing blue cities and how to fix them. I'm David Hyde with Sandeep Kaushik. Sandeep, how is your end of Seattle summer going? It's going good, man. I was just down in Portland over the weekend dropping my kid off at college, so I got to do a little bit of a Portland dive bar action, you know. Wow.

[00:00:36] So, yes, old men drinking bourbon in a dive bar, that's, you know, what's wrong with that, right? You're reliving the old days, the good old days. Yes, apparently so. Some things never change, right? I've been out coho fishing, but that's a topic for another podcast.

[00:00:53] On today's show, Joe Trippi, a political consultant and commentator who first became a household name, I think, when he served as the campaign manager for former Vermont Governor Howard Dean in the 2004 presidential election on the Democratic side. That was the primary. Trippi's also been a political commentator for CNN, and he has a podcast with a great name. It's called That Trippi Show. Is it That Trippi Show or That Trippi Show?

[00:01:22] Joe Trippi, thank you so much for joining us. It's That Trippi Show. Of course. Great. Which has worked out. It's worked out for me. I, you know, I won a lot of elections for, you know, on campus because of that name in the 70s. It certainly was. I'll bet. Yeah. I'll bet. Well, Sandeep and I both went to Reed College, so we appreciate both sides of the Trippi here. Yeah, we understand the Trippi aspects.

[00:01:51] Yeah, Trippi, having that in the 70s and 80s was pretty, it worked really well. So, anyway. Got you the girl. Well, let's get into it. And Joe, thank you so much for coming on. It's a real honor and a pleasure for me. And I kind of want to start with the Howard Dean campaign back in 2003, 2004. And bear with me for a second with a little bit of an anecdote here because I was back then writing for The Stranger,

[00:02:21] which was the alternative weekly newspaper in Seattle. I was pretty newly arrived in town. And I'd never written about politics before. But, you know, I was kind of looking around for a story to write. And there was this new thing that were called meetups. You know, and there was this way of kind of organizing people to get together online. And, you know, and it seemed like kind of a Seattle-y, techie kind of thing. I was like, let me check out one of these meetups and write about it.

[00:02:48] And there happened to be one, like, up the street and from, you know, the stranger offices for this guy, Howard Dean. He was the unknown governor of Vermont. And he had this, you know, ambition to run for president of the United States. This is in, like, April of 2003. It was, like, 20 months before the presidential election. So I go to this thing. It's in the back room of a pizza shop. And holy shit, there's, like, 200 people there, right? So anyway, it was like, why are all these people turning out for this dude? Like, what is going on here?

[00:03:18] And so I wrote a little, like, 350-word thing that we ran in The Stranger. And then this is the genius of my boss, Dan Savage. Dan Savage, who was the editor of The Stranger, then called me to his office. And he's like, holy shit, I want you to get on a plane tomorrow and go to New Hampshire and write about this Howard Dean guy. Why are all these people showing up at this thing in, you know, Seattle now for him? And, of course, I was like, that's crazy, Dan. If you want me to write about Howard Dean, let me do some research. And, you know, so I spent a couple weeks. I talked to a bunch of people in Vermont.

[00:03:46] And then I took this trip out to New Hampshire in May of 2003. And I wrote an almost 4,500, 5,000-word kind of feature piece about it that, you know, I mean, this is before shit went viral, right? It was before the internet really had developed to that point. But it kind of went national. Got a lot of attention and kind of reset, helped to reset a kind of narrative about Howard Dean is surging, what's going on with this guy. And so it was kind of a big moment for me in my journalistic career.

[00:04:14] And then just to close this anecdote, in August of that year, I was writing a lot more, started writing a lot more about the whole presidential election. Wrote a big profile of Kerry after that because they invited me out to come hang out with him. And but you guys did, Trippie, you guys did the sleepless summer tour. It was this like plane, 10 cities, four days, plane trip to kind of show the power and the strength and the reach of the Howard Dean campaign. And the stranger sent me on that thing.

[00:04:43] So I'm in there with all of the national press corps in the back of the plane. And, you know, the campaign folks are up front and Joe Trippie walks to the back of the plane and plops down next to me. Right. And I'm this, you know, I've never got barely written about politics. I'm intimidated by all these national people. And you and I had like a 45 minute, hour long conversation and all the other kind of reporters gathered around. And so I don't know, Joe, you remember that.

[00:05:10] But that was like kind of a big, big moment in my sort of journalistic and then later political development. Well, I sure do. And the sleepless summer tour, of course, was probably one of the highlights of that campaign. And you were that was we had to what seven thirty sevens. I think they were called the Grassroots Express. And yeah, I remember you back there. And I remember sitting there. Yeah, it was.

[00:05:37] Gosh, and going into Seattle on this leap of summer tour, I think we we racked up pretty much a crowd record for the times anyway. So, yeah, I was at Westlake Center filled Westlake Center here in downtown Seattle. Like like this huge and boisterous crowd. Yeah. People were pouring down different blocks, different streets. It was that. No, that was that was, you know, one, we were breaking new ground every day.

[00:06:03] You know, the blogosphere, the Dean for America blog, the meetups and breaking new ground pioneered a lot of things. And and frankly, you know, look, back then the the party establishment, which was all out against Howard Dean in the campaign, had tremendous power still. I mean, in terms of donors, you know, you see it.

[00:06:31] They still try to do it today when they pick, you know, Janet Mills, you know, up and you know where they roll in and and try to do that. And it was powerful enough. And the other candidates, John Kerry, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, all those people were banded together and were able to kill it off.

[00:06:52] And then, you know, but but there's no way Barack Obama happens if the Dean campaign didn't happen, because here you have this insurgent who's who's got this this funny name, Barack Hussein Obama. And even the Democratic establishment was sure that the country wasn't one ready for a black guy running for president and to certainly not a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama.

[00:07:21] And the rally behind Hillary, but who is by far a massive front runner and almost all that early money that Obama got was coming from people who had been insurgent dean, deaniacs, etc. And propel, you know, and they were able to harness it.

[00:07:45] Axelrod and those guys had gone to school and actually hired a lot of dean, you know, Internet guys, the guys that had built what we were doing. And and and it took off. And yes, it's the unfortunate thing was the entire Democratic Party. The only thing they learned was, gosh, you can you can raise a lot of money with email. So unfortunately, yeah, blame me for that.

[00:08:15] The Republicans learned that you could develop really direct connection with your supporters and build your own networks that would between you disintermediate everybody. CNN, everybody, and just talk directly with and build networks with their constituents.

[00:08:41] And that's how, you know, I wake up one morning and no politician since 2004 had their own blog or or had that direct connection that we built on Dean for America until this guy, Donald Trump.

[00:09:02] I'm watching him turn Twitter into his personal blog where he's posting to 17, 18 million people every day and they're having a direct connection with him. There's no one in between him and them. And. He's creating the same kind of energy that we were creating with that kind of connection with our supporters back in 2004. No one else that the only candidate since Dean that's done it.

[00:09:32] Meanwhile, I've been screaming to my party. We should be we should be doing this, but they get only one thing. Push a button and get people to donate. And so, you know, hopefully that's changing. I think it is changing with individual candidates out there who have gotten it. And you're seeing them come from all different stripes within the party.

[00:10:00] But but but we've got a long way to go. Let me ask about your thoughts about one of those candidates in a slightly long roundabout way by starting with this story this week or when was it? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.

[00:10:16] Recently, Wyoming Republican Governor Mark Gordon saying two officials with the Trump administration Department of Justice show up unannounced at a polling station demanding to interview voters. They want to inspect polling machines and they're denied. But people are asking, like, what the fuck is going on here? The governor's calling for an investigation.

[00:10:40] I think from our perspective, you know, one more piece of evidence about why this administration is a threat to democracy. And meanwhile, you've got the Democratic Party fighting over the primary results that are already over in Michigan. And because some people don't like Abdul El Saeed. I personally don't think he was probably the best candidate to try to win in Michigan, but he is the candidate there now.

[00:11:07] And I'm curious what your thoughts are sort of about the infighting and kind of what's what's happening in the Democratic Party and what some Democrats and maybe the mainstream media aren't getting about this candidate. Hey, Blue City Blues listeners, we've got a special event coming up later this month for folks who live in Seattle. It's called Two Cities, One Industry, Big Tech, Power and Politics in Seattle and San Francisco.

[00:11:35] A live taping of Blue City Blues and the GeekWire podcasts at the National Nordic Museum featuring historian Margaret O'Meara. She's at the University of Washington and she's the author of The Code, Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America. We also have GeekWire's John Cook and journalist Jonathan Weber. He's got a newish book out called City on the Edge, Technology, Politics and the Fight for the Soul of San Francisco.

[00:12:01] So the conversation is going to look at how these two different cities became the twin capitals of tech and how the relationship between big tech and local governments that host tech continues to evolve. Recorded live for both podcasts, Sandeep and I are going to be asking some questions. So check that out. September 29th, starting at 6 p.m. We'll put a link in our show notes if you want to get in on that. And we hope you can join us. Thanks.

[00:12:32] Well, a couple of things. I mean, first, yeah, watch out for them messing with the election. They're going to do it. I think that's what you're talking about in Wyoming is a good sign of that. And there's more to come, including messing with mail ballots and all that stuff. You know, my view of that is we have to swamp them big enough that they can't that it won't it won't matter. I'm sure they're going to try on the party stuff.

[00:12:58] I think there's a lot of things that people do not get about the Democratic Party. That maybe I don't think I'm all that smart, but I have lived through it for 50 years and have seen this movie before. And let me walk through three times that we saw this movie. So in 1979, 1980. Sorry, dating myself.

[00:13:21] Jimmy Carter is thought to be too conservative, too Bible thumping, too whatever you want to call it, too moderate. And the left decides it all out. They're going to primary their president. And Ted Kennedy leads the left in a challenge of Jimmy Carter.

[00:13:41] What happens when the left challenges the status quo of the party or the establishment tends to be what happened that year and it fails. What happens is the left, if you go look at it, many of them, a huge chunk of them voted for John Anderson, the independent in the general election or did not vote. Ergo, you get Ronald Reagan.

[00:14:06] And I'm not saying Reagan wouldn't have won anyway, but I'm just saying the consequence of the left sitting on its hands is or the change candidate, whatever you want to call it, is they sit on their hands. 2008. An insurgent guy with that funny name, Barack Hussein Obama and the entire establishment of the Democratic Party out and out supporting Hillary because they believe he cannot possibly be elected. He beats them.

[00:14:34] Now, let me explain what happens. That whole wing of the party that was so concerned about his electability, about the name, about is the country ready for a black guy? Well, those fears go out the window with that side of the party because they want to stop another four years of George W. Bush and his his got, you know, because you're going to get his, you know, that party's been in power eight years and I keep doing it to us. So they turn out like crazy.

[00:15:04] So you have the young people, the hope and change. We need something big happening here. They're all excited. They're turning out. And the people who were worried about electability and all those other concerns that they had or is he too far, you know, he was against the war, all these different things that they were that the establishment had made a different choice on. Guess what? They turn out. So now I'm going to take you to 2016.

[00:15:33] Hillary Clinton again, establishment, status quo. She's running against the socialists, a real one, Bernie Sanders and and Bernie loses. What happened? The left sat on its hands. Bernie bros didn't go out, didn't turn out. And the people who wanted radical change, whatever, whatever didn't. You know, oh, you gave me a status quo person. I'm not voting. Great.

[00:16:01] So what happens in these elections is whenever the left wins, everybody turns out. Whenever they get defeated by the status quo, the status quo candidate has enormous problems turning out that changey, lefty, bolder, whatever you want to call electorate, protest electorate. OK, which means leads me to the following.

[00:16:26] Haley Stevens would have had a much tougher time defeating Mike Rogers than Al-Syad is going to have, because most of the Haley Stevens voters were voting for her because they were worried about Al-Syad's electability. And maybe for some of them, his out there kind of positions on things were motivated by defeating Rogers and not giving Trump a rubber stamp.

[00:16:54] I think every single one of them, that one point five million, that huge turnout we had in Michigan, they're all going to vote. And we're seeing depressed turnout on the Republican side. So my my my view of it is I'm not saying Al-Syad will win. I'm saying if we were going to have a winner out of that fight, it's it's likelier that Haley Stevens would have had a tougher time getting out Al-Syad's voters than the other way around.

[00:17:23] Now, he's got a lot of stuff he's got to do and we'll see if he can. But in the end, I think he has an easier time putting the party back together. That's that's interesting. Let me let me let me let me complicate the the the theory you kind of Joe that you're laying out here.

[00:17:41] So Obama is obviously like a, you know, a generational politician and the coalition he builds right where he's got not just all these young people who are super enthusiastic about hope and change in 2008. And he does mobilize them. But he's got black voters coming out and kind of, you know, record numbers to support him.

[00:18:03] Obviously, black voters being a huge part of the base of the of the of the Democratic Party in a lot of states around the country. And he builds this kind of coalition of, you know, minorities, you know, many of the non-college educated and then college educated kind of kind of often young sort of sort of white kids to to win that campaign.

[00:18:30] And and and, you know, that coalition is what powers the party. But sometimes like in recent days and El Saeed's gotten in trouble with the Hassan Piker stuff right a bit.

[00:18:44] The question, I guess, is can you go too far down this sort of cultural cosmopolitan road, right, where you're woke and you're this and you're talking about some of this cultural stuff that turns off more culturally traditional folks, black voters in, you know, Detroit or or wherever. And and isn't that the circle you got to square Obama squared that circle, right? He got everybody to kind of get. Yeah.

[00:19:13] Yeah. Well, I mean, one, we're in a much different time, obviously. Yeah. I'm talking about how my party works, how the Democratic Party works and the Democratic Party works the way I talk. I mean, the turnout works. So somebody like Obama who can excite young people who can excite. I mean, excite people who would not have voted in that election had Obama not been on the ballot. And I believe that El Saeed is attracting people who would not have voted.

[00:19:42] Now, then the question is, OK, all the people, the, quote, rank and file Democrats who always vote. I mean, you know, who always vote Democrat are were the ones that were doubting him. And I'm just saying he has a better chance of convincing those people, not all of them, but most of them. I don't believe that the that that Haley Stevens, I think, was a great candidate. I'm not talking down about a particular candidate.

[00:20:08] Just I think it's tougher. It would have been tougher for Hillary. OK, Hillary beats Obama. How many of those young people? How many of those black? I mean, we can go the other way. This is my point. It's not about it's just sort of the way the party works. And the one thing I would say, look, I'd go back to something I've been talking about. Double haters, people who hate both parties.

[00:20:34] OK, back in November of last year, when New Jersey and Virginia happened, this remarkable thing happened. Double haters are usually two or three percent of the vote. These are they're not they don't vote. Right. I hate the two candidates. I hate both parties, pox on both their houses. So like they're usually like one percent, two percent, maybe three percent. They were like voting at 11, 12 percent of the electorate. So they were voting in these races.

[00:21:03] They've been voting in all these races. What was remarkable about it? And this is held up. Double haters have been voting eight to two for the Democrat in the race, whether it's eight to two in New Jersey, eight to two in Virginia, et cetera, down the line and all in where we've had elections or specials or anything. That's why is that? Because the world seems, including the Democratic Party, seems to, you know,

[00:21:33] talking heads, talk about the toxicity of the Democratic brand or these positions that make the party more toxic. Well, I would say there's that group of people, double haters. They're pretty in tune with what's toxic in the Democratic Party. What's happened in this second term of Trump, ice and all of it, tariffs, the war,

[00:21:58] is there's now a brand that is far, far, far more toxic than whatever you think the toxicity of the Democratic brand is. And that is double haters, eight to two. It's called MAGA and Trump. Ergo, OK, so now you've got Rogers, who is the MAGA Trump guy, you know, pretty much. And yes, you have you may have El Syed, who may represent to many some of the toxicity

[00:22:26] that they've, you know, issues that they worry about with the with the Democratic brand. And I'd still still, still, given what I'm seeing, say that Rogers and Trump are more toxic. Now, we'll see because it's going to that's why we have these things. But there's we're in a different place. And, you know, as bad as look, we'd all we'd all gladly accept accept another term of George W. Bush today.

[00:22:54] I know that sounds insane as I say it, but we would. But people really, really want to just stop whatever this Trump MAGA thing that they're seeing. They want change. This is this is not a blue wave. This is that's what I keep trying to tell people. Forget about blue wave. This is a massive shock wave in response to Trump and what he's done.

[00:23:24] All the stuff, all of it. I mean, from and that's why I think you're seeing data centers become a huge issue. It's the one way to say no to the tech bros and all the crap that they're throwing at us. So it's there. I just think that we look up this way. Data centers. Another great example. Gallup just came out. Seventy five percent of Americans oppose building any more data centers. Seventy five. Now, I don't know since he's come down the aisle.

[00:23:52] Can you remember anything except maybe Dolly Parton where 75 percent of the American people agreed on anything? So I think Rogers is on that 75 20. I mean, that's what I'm saying. Even if he now a lot of Republicans are suddenly who've been out there screaming. We've got to build data centers to beat China are suddenly going, well, wait, right. Because they can read their own polls. But I just think it's changed. This it's it's independence voting.

[00:24:22] Sixty seven percent, not seven percent. Fifty three forty seven one way or fifty three forty seven the other way, like they did Trump and Biden. And then Trump, you know, it with Harris. There's no, this is sixty seven percent of independents are voting for Democrats. Seventy percent in New Jersey. Sixty percent. Seven percent in Virginia. I can keep citing them as we go from there.

[00:24:46] But starting way back in November before the war, before any of this, before dumping three hundred thousand pounds of attack, you know, metric tons of of of unacceptable. I mean, China rejected that beef from Argentina. But no, we're we're we're giving them no tariffs, no taxes. Just dump it here and screw, you know, cattle ranchers all over. By the way, if you're looking for.

[00:25:14] We've got a tight race in Texas, tight race in Iowa, Senate races, tight races in, you know, places like Georgia. So what do you do? What do you do to help your side while you you dump cheap beef on the market and wreck the cattle industry in Texas? That makes sense to me. And then not not because, geez, Maine and Michigan don't have a lot of cattle.

[00:25:41] So let's like do a 50 percent tariff on China and go into a new a new trade war with China, which which only which trades, I don't know, 15 times across the bridges with auto parts in Michigan and and with and with Maine. So in the last week, he's done more. So, I mean, all these things are going on. So, yeah, Michigan, he's got a 50 percent tariff with Canada.

[00:26:09] I'm I'm sure that's going to help Rogers. That's you know, maybe maybe people won't vote for. Yeah, I mean, this is what I'm saying. There's stuff going on here that I think is transcending a lot of what we normally would think. But the one trend that I always look at when you have a huge fight, because this generally this left right or left center fight in the Democratic Party has been going on for five decades. And I don't know.

[00:26:38] There's four members of the squad. I mean, it's not like unlike, by the way, the Republican Party, which has been taken over by man. I mean, every there's you know, you might find 10 members of of DSA or the squad in Congress. I mean, who associate completely with those ideas? There isn't a single you can't find a single Republican and maybe three or four goes the other way.

[00:27:05] But 98 percent of them, 99 percent of them, whatever Mr. Trump say and and whatever MAGA want. And so and and if it's illegal, so what? I didn't see it. I didn't see the tweet, whatever. So, you know, one party, I think that is why there's that 80 20 split with double haters. Right. They they they don't like 20 percent of the Democratic Party, but they don't like 80 percent of the Republican Party. Hmm.

[00:27:36] Just because you brought it up, I want to sort of as an aside, ask a little bit about the Trump's trade war with Canada and how you think Democrats ought to respond to it, because that's in the news. I was reading an opinion piece this morning, which sort of made the point that you've got the Canadian prime minister standing up to Trump. And as you suggest, this could really help Democrats in the midterms potentially.

[00:27:59] But we've got somebody like Gavin Newsom saying, you know, I would be a lot more polite when I'm implementing my trade war against Canada. I mean, that's unfair to Gavin Newsom to say that that's exactly what he said. But he certainly didn't say I'm going to end Trump's trade war. And I'm wondering if that's just kind of weak tea right now, because the Canadians don't think that Democrats are really on their side.

[00:28:23] Maybe they're going to give up sooner rather than later, because this trade war is going to hit a lot harder in Canada than it's going to be hitting here. I've got I'm Canadian. Originally, I've got relatives up in Canada. You know, none of them are super happy about this, but I think there's a little bit of uncertainty about, you know, how much how much somebody like Gavin Newsom or Elizabeth Warren kind of have their back. Because, look, historically, the Democrats are the party of tariffs. So it's it's what what ought Democrats do right now just politically?

[00:28:53] Well, I mean, first of all, that's all stuff that will get decided after this election. Yeah. In other words, I think being against the 50 percent. I mean, it's the size of these things. It's how he you know, it's all personal. It's because, you know, we're going to now we're going to change Lake Ontario to Lake America. I mean, give me you know, it's like I think people, you know, there's just a and by the way, they keep seeing it over and over.

[00:29:20] It'd be one thing if it was a one off, you know, he went after one country because of this. But when you see him going after Greenland, invading Venezuela, taking Maduro out now, we're going to supposedly have a deal where we're going to get gazillions of barrels of oil from Venezuela like 10 years from now, maybe after we rebuild the entire oil infrastructure down there. I mean, I just don't think anybody's buying any of it.

[00:29:45] And I think for, you know, what democratic trade policy is going to be, it's all going to be decided in the 2028 election. I mean, the nomination fight. You look, we're going to have an AOC or or an Al Syed or some, you know, and we'll have Mark Kelly's and Gavin Newsom's and they'll all have their their policies out there.

[00:30:07] Whoever it's like, you know, Obama and Hillary, you know, Obama was, you know, one flavor. Yes, he was more establishment than a lot of insurgents or was accepted pretty quickly from by the establishment who opposed him. But they're going to be putting these ideas, you know, what are we going to do about Iran? I mean, look, this thing's not going to be over. There's no way.

[00:30:33] And so, you know, what our foreign policy in the Middle East is, is going to be completely different than it was going into 2024. Not not. And I'm not just talking about Gaza and Israel and all that. But, you know, we are in, you know, he has the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be opened up anytime soon. We're not going to get that oil from Venezuela anytime soon.

[00:30:58] And and the other thing I would say on on all this is, OK, let's argue that 50 percent tariffs on on Canada is a great idea. You know, for whatever. Is it really when gas prices are over four dollars a gallon, when we have entire swaths of America, like literally living paycheck to paycheck, can't afford anything higher, begging for you to lower prices?

[00:31:27] If there was ever a time. I mean, OK, so then, OK, so that's what gets him to dump cheap beef in the country because, oh, yeah, yeah, I forgot. Maybe I could do something like that. It's so erratic. It's so, you know, uncertainty is huge. And I just think, you know, that's what I'm saying. I don't you know, Gavin Newsom could have a plan for 15 percent tariffs on X, Y and Z that might make tremendous sense.

[00:31:56] But certainly 50 percent and renaming a lake and any other historian and making it our 51st state. I loved Carney. I didn't love it, but it was funny him like, you know, naming Southern Canada or whatever, South Canada, whatever he did, you know, quipped.

[00:32:17] But that's my point. It's like it's like two year old deciding, you know, trade policy because he's having a hissy fit on because they won't let him become the won't let him pick Canada's a 51st state. It's crazy. Yeah. No, just on the I mean, Democrats tend to see tariffs as you know, and trade policy as a kind of, you know, instrument of, you know, the economic order.

[00:32:45] Right. You know, and so, yes, there may be Democrats who want to use tariffs as a way of getting past the old kind of free trade neoliberal order that has been discredited and that kind of stuff. Trump sees this stuff really differently. Right.

[00:32:59] I mean, we had we had a New York Times global economy correspondent on the podcast last year, and he kind of pointed this out to us that for Trump, he loves tariffs because they're an instrument of his will and power. He can use them to get, you know, whether it's the tech CEOs come to him and bend the knee and beg him for an exemption from this or that,

[00:33:23] or whether it's heads of state from these other countries who have to come suck up to him, you know, so that they get a favorable, you know, tariff treatment. It's a kind of instrument of his own sort of personal power and kind of this globalized crony capitalist system that he wants to be the center of. Right. Which is, as you say, Joe, that's just like chaos and corruption. And it's not lost on people. Right. That that's kind of what's going on here. Right.

[00:33:52] Yeah, I think that's what I'm saying. That's why I think people want to reject that more than they want to reject it. Like, look, one of the things I think people forget is there's a difference when you want change from a president who's controlling his entire party the way Trump does. And thinking that one guy in the U.S. Senate who may have some a few views that you don't agree with, that's a whole different decision.

[00:34:22] Right. The El-Sayed is going to be one of 100. If you're really worried about some policy that he has, I would guarantee you that there are going to be 99 people in the U.S. Senate that will make absolutely sure, including every Democrat in the Senate, if it's that far out there, it's never going to happen. Donald Trump wants to invade Greenland.

[00:34:47] It doesn't work that way. So what I'm saying is, I think the reason you're seeing Plattner and, you know, he did he he again, the establishment and and and the rules do do matter here. And this power centers in the party and and some of these candidates are flawed and have big problems. Don't get I'm not saying that I am saying that I think there's a big difference.

[00:35:15] When so much of the country, the double haters, the independents, Democrats for sure, been at 96 percent. No way from the moment he came in 2016. Those people have not woken up all of a sudden and said, no, you know, I've made a mistake even thinking about it. I don't really want to change things. This is all great. That's not going on. They are going out.

[00:35:42] They're going to turn out. That's why you're seeing these these 15 percent over performances and stuff like that. They're turning out. And now that independence and double haters are moving with Democrats. And a lot of that is about they want they want the thing they want to change is Donald Trump. And this is the first chance they're going to get this November. And yes, you do have people who have concerns about, you know, an Al-Sayed, you know, policy.

[00:36:10] He's if he were running for governor, by the way, I think it would be a much different story. I don't think they'd have. I think he if Rogers and he were running for governor, I think I wouldn't have the same opinion.

[00:36:26] But it's the Senate. And I think in the Senate, they want they want somebody who's going to stop Trump and and and work with a pro democracy majority to put the put the country back on track. And if the guy's got some one or two views or five views that I don't agree with, they that doesn't work the same way. If you're electing a president that you're you don't agree with on foreign policy or or, you know, war in Iran.

[00:36:56] It's a different it's a totally different decision. And this is, in my view, a ref going to be a referendum on Trump and MAGA, not on the Democratic brand. And, you know, and also for the most part, in most of these districts, in most of these states, the the winner of the nomination is tended.

[00:37:16] And, you know, maybe Michigan's not, you know, it was tight, but most of them are actually are representative of the district of the makeup of the district or the state that they were nominated in. You know, Mondami in New York City is not the same as is as nominating Mondami for the Senate in Iowa, for instance. Right. Josh Turek is perfect. But he or Walls would have been good candidates for us there, but he won it.

[00:37:47] So the interesting thing would be Crockett and Tallarico. Because that is goes the other way. That's one where the left was was beaten by, you know, Tallarico won that nomination.

[00:38:04] But I think that everything I'm seeing is that in in Texas, the party Abbott in the impacts and in particular, I mean, just who they've put up has kind of unified most Democrats in the state. Most of the people who voted for Crockett and Tallarico, I think, are unified in that in that one.

[00:38:21] We'll see what happens up in Michigan, but I'd still stick by my guns that not that Al Sayed will win, but that that Haley Stevens would have had a much tougher time turning out his vote than he'll have turning out hers. Whether that's enough or not, we'll see. But that's that's my take. I mean, your theory about some progressives sitting on their hands if they don't win a primary. Yeah. Like, what about that?

[00:38:49] Jamie Jasmine Crockett not endorsing Tallarico, not saying she's going to campaign with Tallarico here in Washington state. Washington's third congressional district was a key flip for Democrats when Marie Glusenkamp Perez won against Joe Kent. Just crazy ass MAGA freak. I did the comms on that race in. Yeah. Yeah. Plug for Sandeep. He worked on that. And, you know, she's she's been in there. She takes some controversial positions for Democrats.

[00:39:18] They don't like what she says about assault weapons and things like that. Although I'll point out that Bernie Sanders himself was against gun control for a long time in Vermont. But in any case, she's a she's more of a blue dog Democrat in a Trump district. And Brent Brent Henrich, you know, says, screw her. There's absolutely no I mean, he's much worse than Jasmine Crockett. Like, she's a horrible, horrible person. You should never vote for her. I mean, I hope progressive concerns about Trump outweigh their dislike for that candidate.

[00:39:47] I hope we're right in thinking that. But what's wrong with these? What's wrong with these bitter candidates? And I mean, on both sides, like the moderates that are going after El Saeed now, like just fuck them. But also fuck the progressives in this case, as far as I'm concerned. Well, I think I think that's right. I mean, I think that's happening, like you said, in a few places.

[00:40:11] But the other thing I would say is that I think it's interesting. It takes the left a long time to get it. Like, so when we lost an 80 to Reagan and lost an 84 to Reagan, then lost an 88 to George Herbert Walker Bush.

[00:40:37] They finally said, OK, here's this DLC Bill Clinton guy. Damn it. You know, it takes a while. Right. And they did it. They they they got pragmatic and and sort of like put the put their the you know, their litmus test down. And you remember the sister soldier moment, all that stuff happened.

[00:41:02] I think that moment for a lot of people I'm talking about rank and file now, people on the ground, not the not the Crockett's, but the people who voted for Crockett. They know what happened in 2016. We all know that Bernie bros sat on their hands and we all know we got Donald Trump.

[00:41:24] And so, no, I actually think, yeah, you can have the you know, the you can be sour grapes losers saying, you know, no way I'll support. I don't think that's happening on the ground because Donald Trump, if Donald Trump wasn't the president right now. And you weren't worried about what he's going to do with another two years. Then maybe you could send Mike Rogers to the I mean, you could know I'm not going to vote for him.

[00:41:54] I'm going to vote for Mike Rogers or I'm going to stay home. I don't think that's happening, man. I'm just I've been in focus groups with MAGA Republicans, non MAGA Republicans who don't consider themselves MAGA Republicans, independents who lean Republican. And it ain't that they are not on fire. My friends, they are they are disturbed by what's going on. They may not. But I'm not saying that they're going to come out and vote against. They may not vote. A lot of them.

[00:42:23] And they they actually say that they feel betrayed and left down. And, you know, they go, maybe I'm just not going to vote because the last thing I'm going to do is vote for. And then they like puke into a trash can in the middle of focus group because they're about to say the word Democrat. Yeah, I'm not going to. I'm I'm just disgusted that I've been left with this with I may have to vote for a Democrat.

[00:42:47] That's how that's how far away they are from those from those people in the groups that were like jumping up and down in their chairs, screaming at the top of their lungs. MAGA rules in 2016 and do that. I've been doing these, unfortunately. So you wouldn't have to. I've been doing or a lot of Americans would have to. I've been looking at, you know, in those focus groups. And it is a totally different time.

[00:43:17] I just don't see I don't even know what they can do to reenergize. I mean, calling us calling everybody they're running against a communist or a socialist or wanting to put boys and girls sports is just not having the same. It doesn't have the same energy, the same impact. And I think that is due to tariffs and war and and ICE overstepping.

[00:43:46] And when you get to the point, by the way, I can't remember if it was Pew or who who asked the question, but they asked. And here's the Republican crosstab on this. Do you think ICE has gone too far? And about a third of Republicans thought ICE had gone too far. Then they said, well, the next one was you have a choice. Do you think ICE is what they've done has been appropriate? That was about a third of the Republican Party. So you have, you know, the third.

[00:44:12] And then there were 31 percent who answered the following. Do you think ICE hasn't been tough enough at getting rid of all these immigrants? Thirty one percent. So you got a problem now because you got a third of your party thinking you've gone too far and a third saying you haven't gone far enough. It's the same thing on the war.

[00:44:41] You got like 60 something percent. No more forever wars. The third that wants you to get tougher with ICE to be tougher wants you to nuke Iran. So you got like you got like this split in MAGA now where like, you know, you went too far. No, we've got to get tough. That's what I think. That's what I think. Alligator Alcatraz was all about. It wasn't really about anything other than making the 30.

[00:45:08] Look, hey, for you, 31 percent who think we haven't been tough enough, they're going to get eaten by alligators now. They try to run. Right. I mean, it was all aimed at those people, that 31 percent. Everybody else rolled their eyes and said, this is crazy. But that 31 percent probably I didn't do a group right after that. I would have loved to because they'd all probably be bringing alligator puppets to the focus groups or something. It's that bad out there.

[00:45:31] Yeah, no, there was that like, God, that gulag glam stuff that Kristi Noem was doing, posing like with her, you know, made up in front of all the prisoners. Anyway, but Joe, I agree with you a thousand percent here. These midterms are a referendum on Trump.

[00:45:50] And in fact, you want to talk about Washington state, like Washington state primaries are kind of seen nationally as a pretty good bellwether for what's going to happen in the general election because we have a blanket primary because our primary. So all of the candidates are on the same ballot in the in the primary, regardless of party. And because our primaries are kind of late in the year, they're in August. And when you look at Washington three, like, David, to your point, yeah, Brent Henrik, you know, the progressive challenger to MGP is, you know, kind of petulant and saying don't vote for her.

[00:46:20] But when you look at that combined Democratic vote in the primary in Washington three, 55, 56 percent of the voters that turned out and voted in that primary in Washington three voted Democratic in a Republican. It's a district that Trump carried three times right in southwest Washington.

[00:46:40] And there is just no fucking way in the world that with the control of Congress hanging in the balance with Trump and all the stuff that he's doing right now with, you know, some ability maybe to kind of check some of this stuff that progressive Democratic voters are going to sit on their hands because Marie Gousencamp-Perez isn't progressive enough. There's just no way. Yeah, so I agree.

[00:47:06] So I just think that, you know, there's like I said, I start with the premise that there's something has become more toxic in the second term than any concerns about what this Democrat or that Democrat might do. And it's, we just want to, and that's, again, it's what I think is going on with data centers. People just want to say no to the billionaire tech bros who are, you know, like we need another app, like we need a hole in our heads.

[00:47:36] And, you know, I mean, I think it's basically, it's the only thing you can be, you can do to say, to give the finger to tech billionaires who are raking it in and funding Trump and manipulating with advertising or otherwise to sell you stuff or to use your data to trick you into doing something. And people are sick of it. It's enough. They're ready to say enough is enough.

[00:48:04] They've seen enough of this presidency and the guys who are funding it. And they just want to say no. And it's across the board. It's not, it's 75%. So I think, and like, I can't believe, that's what I'm saying. I don't know where Mike Rogers is on the Canadian tariffs, but, you know, we'll see. I just think it's not, you know, it's like everything.

[00:48:30] And by the way, Trump hasn't done everything he's going to do to sabotage this for his party. I mean, you've got the convention. He's doing a whole, holding a midterm convention. Does Rogers go to that? I mean, does he stand with Trump at the convention here in September, in a few days, I think? Does he go to that?

[00:48:53] When Trump says he's going to spend $500 million of his money, he's going to unleash it in these states, running ads about what he's done, his record, and how good it's been for America. Is that going to help? I mean, forget it. Is that going to help Tellurico? Is that going to help anybody?

[00:49:14] So it's like most of these midterms where if you're Bill Clinton, who's in 98, where we lost 54 seats, I'm pretty sure no one wanted ads up with Bill saying what a great job he had done. You know what I mean? Maybe he thought he'd done a great job. Not my point. I'm not picking on the job he did. I'm picking on like, I just don't, I would not be holding a midterm convention to celebrate everything Donald Trump's done.

[00:49:44] And I would not be spending $500 million of ads. I would give these guys, here's 20 million for you, do what you want with it. You know, but don't show any pictures of me with you. But, you know, but that's not Donald Trump. That's the, that's my point. We are in a, you know, now the other question I'd ask is, we don't know yet. Will Barack Obama travel to Detroit to say vote? We don't know.

[00:50:11] I mean, there's, there's plenty of things that can solve some of the turnout and, you know, and, and, and assuage people's concerns in different constituencies. And, you know, they're all, they're all possibilities. I don't know. I don't know what the relationship there is between El-Sayed and Obama, but I, I heard that they've had positive conversations. We'll see what happens.

[00:50:35] But I'd much rather, I still believe that he's going to win this thing, that El-Sayed will win. And it's not a fait accompli. A lot of work has to be done, but I think we're going to take the Senate. I think, I think Peltola is going to win in Alaska. Yeah. We've got, she's up, Tellarico's up, Turek's up, Sherrod Brown's up. And, and I think El-Sayed is up by four over Rogers right now.

[00:51:04] And the poll came out yesterday or the day before. I don't know how real it is. I'll, you know, I haven't looked at that one yet, but you know. And by the way, don't, oh, Maine. I think Jackson's up double digits right now over, over Collins. No, we're going to, we're going to, and look, I'm in Alabama working for Doug Jones.

[00:51:23] And just give you the thing to think about right now, there are only three states in the country where Donald Trump has a positive approval rating. They're Idaho, Wyoming, and West Virginia.

[00:51:39] When we started in December in Alabama, when Doug announced he was running for governor, Trump was up, had a two point positive approval rating different, 51, 49, two points. It's now minus 11. It's gone minus two, minus four, minus eight, minus 10. This week it came minus 11. He's minus 11 in Alabama, folks. I mean, in Alabama.

[00:52:08] And Tuberville runs seven points, six, seven, eight points below Trump's approval ever since we've ever polled on Tuberville. So Alabama is in play. David Jolly is in play in Florida. You know, Ossoff, you can see it happening across the South. Ossoff is, it's not even a race. North Carolina is not a race. Mississippi.

[00:52:36] Mississippi, the incumbent, Hyde Smith, she's at 45, the challenger's at 38. Now, that's a long way to come, but when you ever have a Republican incumbent in Mississippi, he's at 45. Don't count it out. Kansas, Hamilton against Marshall. There, I'm telling you, we're going to have some surprise Senate victories that people haven't even, I mean, just be, you'd be blown away by what's about to happen.

[00:53:03] If they, you know, if people would laugh at you today, probably many, maybe people listening think, you know, laughing about Mississippi. Watch. It is, this is, this is, this more than anything else reminds me of 80. When I went, my first race, I was a $15 a day organizer. And in 1980 on election day, people thought there were three Democrats and senators in trouble.

[00:53:30] That night, 12 Democratic senators lost their seats and they were all giants. I mean, it was like Birch by, I think Udall, I think McGovern. I mean, I can't remember who, but they were giants. 12 of them went out the window. That's what's going to happen this year. Fingers crossed. Well, we have to do the work. We have to do the work. And we have to, I mean, don't go to sleep on the South, send the South some money.

[00:53:59] There are races down there that matter. No, no. Cause we get all tied up in the house and the Senate and, you know, and, uh, and I understand Sherrod Brown needs all the help he can get. And I'll say all of them, but I think you're going to be amazed. And you got to remember too, that, you know, both Carter and Clinton were Southern governors and we need to start focusing on governors races, particularly, um, it's, it, AGs and governors

[00:54:29] are the people that are going to be able to, to do more, to slow down what Trump's doing and actually help people in the States. So, um, I know we have a lot of good people running. Yeah. Sandeep often points out that Democrats actually used to win some races in the South and maybe they will, thanks to Trump's, uh, unpopularity. It would be helpful if Democrats to, could do a little bit more to increase their own popularity with Southern voters. But, uh, I wanted to ask kind of about like the trippy thesis that we've been talking about

[00:54:58] and the way that sort of blue city Democrats think about that, because you make a really compelling case based on your own experience for these change candidates, for people that have this kind of populist outsider, independent streak and rhetoric. And, and look, I mean, Trump tapped into that, as you point out, Obama tapped into that. Clinton tapped into that. Reagan tapped into that, right? Like all of these successful candidates did.

[00:55:24] I'm not so sure about some of the others in there, but, um, what about the like alternatives where that's not the case? Joe Biden wasn't really a change candidate. People wanted stability that year. And then McGovern was a change candidate. And, um, my other just counterpoint here historically is that like college students and sort of blue city folks or whatever, they like change, but working class people, you know, um, white

[00:55:52] and black and Brown working class people often don't really like change as much as kind of leftists want to think they do. They want stability. They want to make sure that like, there's going to be food on the table. They want to make sure there's social security is there. And that's why Biden won arguably the primary in 2020. And so I'm not sure who the, who the voters are going to go for in this next presidential race. What do you think?

[00:56:16] No, by Biden one, because he was exactly the change everybody wanted, um, change from change from instability to what? To grandpa. Yeah. They wanted Mr. Rogers or grandpa. Right. Exactly. Well, you know, you've got Ike and we changed to Kennedy. You got Nixon and we changed to Carter. I mean, you know, you, you've got what happened was, and I first saw this in California when

[00:56:40] I was working for Jerry Brown, where, um, we're running against, uh, uh, uh, Meg Whitman, uh, eBay. She puts $187 million of her own money in the race. She's she's she spends all of it or a hundred million of it, uh, running commercials that are kind of like the 1970s. Uh, she, he loves you. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, kind of like, uh, you know, uh, the turntable script with the crackling and is 1970s.

[00:57:09] And Jerry Brown was governor moonbeam. He's been around forever. Change, you know, you want change, you know, I'm it. And, um, what she didn't realize and I didn't realize it because here I'm going in Gavin Newsom was the, actually the front runner in that race for the primary. Cause he was the young up and coming, you know, thing. Um, and when you went into the, I did focus groups, I learned a lot more from them than

[00:57:36] polls often, but, um, and we said, what about Meg Whitman? And they said, no way. What do you mean? No way. She can spend all the money she wants. We had eight years of Arnold Schwarzenegger. He didn't know what anything about government. She doesn't either. No way. Could you just, just somebody who can turn on the damn lights. What about Gavin Newsom? Oh, he's too young. He has no experience. This has been so terrifying. God damn. We need something. Please, please just, you know what? Just give me an old shoe.

[00:58:05] And I was sitting on the other side of that one way mirror thinking, have I got an old shoe for you? His name's Jerry Brown. And he knows how to turn the lights on. And he will do that. And you know what they did? We went from being behind by 14 points to winning by 14 points. So here comes, I thought, when everybody else thought Joe Biden's best day would be the day he announced.

[00:58:34] I was telling anybody who would listen to me coming off that 2010 experience in California with her that I think Trump has done in four years what it took Arnold eight years to do in California. Totally miscombobulated everybody with chaos and it wasn't working and the budget was all screwed up. And I mean, all the things that Arnold did. And I like Arnold. So that's, you know, it's not, I'm not, and it's not fair to him to compare him to Trump. So I'm not, that's not what I'm, and it did take Trump only four years to do what he did.

[00:59:03] But no, Biden was going to roll all of them because, you know, Mayor Pete, as good as he and talented as he is, Kamala, et cetera. None of them were what people wanted. They wanted an old shoe. That's all they wanted in 2020. And if the old shoe had said, okay, I'm a transition bridge to the new stuff and I'm leaving, you know, that was one of the more tragic decisions that I've ever seen in American politics.

[00:59:32] You know, I can't believe his team let him do that, but they did. And maybe there was no stopping. I'm not saying that. But anyway, my, my point is no, the, the difference this time is he's not on the ballot. Trump's not on the ballot. His people don't vote when he's on the ballot in any of these midterms. It's never had. That's why he, in the, when he, in the race in South Carolina is please, please, please pretend I'm on the ballot. Please vote. Right.

[01:00:00] You know, uh, he's not on the ballot. They're disappointed in him because of tariffs and the war and the differentials I just talked about before. And at the same time, they want to change. They want, they wish they could change him right this second. Okay. So they're, that's the vote. And then you get to 28 and yeah, that's the issue. I don't know. I mean, are we going to, it, would it be an AOC? Will it be a Mark Kelly? Will it be a Newsom? I, you know, they're going to have it fight out.

[01:00:28] Uh, I'll get behind somebody that I think, you know, might, might be the best candidate. We'll see who's even going to go. But that's when a lot of this other stuff will get decided. And that's when, yeah, that change from Trump will be, will be a, a, a big decider because of the change from Trump is somebody going off the rails, you know, you know, in the wrong direction. Yeah. Is the democratic party capable of that? Yes. We've done it many, many times. Okay.

[01:00:57] So, uh, are they also capable of Clinton or Obama of a reset that puts the party, you know, in a way that no one would have believed possible in terms of the size of the margin and that totally possible too. I believe one of those, I actually believe that we will, you know, somebody will emerge to lead the party into that fight. And I, you know, and I, I, I really, um, but we're going to have to have that fight, but

[01:01:24] I think having it now or arguing about it now, because I lost the primary is completely counterproductive and a waste of time because the grassroots, the net, whatever that they're going to, they want change. And, um, as long as we, you know, you, you know, do our jobs in terms of getting the right, getting people, the resources and volunteering and getting out our vote. Um, I think this is going to be much bigger than people think today.

[01:01:53] So we're at time, Joe Trippi, thanks so much for coming on with us at Blue City Blues. And it's like I said, at the beginning of this, it's just, uh, it's bringing back a bunch of memories for me going back 23 years to that, that Howard Dean campaign and kind of the start of my career then in journalism. But, but that was kind of my launching point into politics too, right? Cause, and so it's just an honor, a personal honor and a pleasure to have you on the pod and to talk about all of this kind of stuff with you. Thank you for coming on.

[01:02:23] Oh, thank you. And I hope, uh, if your listeners want to hear more from me, that, that, that trippy show is a, is where you can find me, wherever you get this podcast. And, uh, thanks a lot for having me guys. Do a few shrooms and a trip out with trippy there. And, uh, it's a great podcast, whether you're on streams or not. Yeah. Yeah. No, I, I, I go into these different races and sort of more into the in depth on numbers and things. So if they're interested, that's where they go. Thanks for having me, David.

[01:02:53] Yeah, definitely check it out. That's it for another edition of blue city blues. He's Sandeep Kashuk. I'm David Hyde. And thanks everybody so much for listening.